平煤集团煤与瓦斯突出强度预测的模糊综合评判

依据平煤集团历年煤与瓦斯突出事例的统计数据,应用7±2心理极限概念,合理选定模糊评判因素集,采用层次分析法确定各因素对突出强度的贡献度权重;采用定性数据定量化理论建立了各因素隶属于大型突出、中型突出和小型突出的隶属度;采用二级模糊综合评判方法和“加权平均型”评判数学模型,在国内外首次建立了煤与瓦斯突出强度预测模糊综合评判方法,按最大隶属度判别准则实现对突出强度的定量预测。对平煤集团91次突出事例突出强度预测验证表明,验证正确率为94 .5 % ,说明提出的煤与瓦斯突出强度预测方法在技术上是可行的,对突出矿井煤与瓦斯突出预测具有重要的指导意义。

Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation of Prediction of Coal and Gas Outburst Scale in Pingdingshan Coal Co.

Based on statistical data of the annual outburst cases occurred in Pingdingshan Coal (Group) Co, a factor set of fuzzy synthetic evaluation was reasonably established according to 7±2 psychological extreme limit concept. By applying hierarchy analysis, the weight of each factor contribution degree is calculated. The membership degree subordinated to the scale of outburst of large, medium and small is determined by the method of the quantitative analysis on the qualitative data. On the light of two-stage fuzzy synthetic evaluation method and weighted average mathematical model, a method for predicating coal and gas outburst scale is established for the first time. With the principle of maximum subordinate degree, the quantitative prediction of coal and gas outburst scale was successfully conducted. Outburst scale verification to 91 cases shows that the accuracy is 94.5%. This method is technically feasible, and is an important guidance for prediction of coal and gas outburst scale in such coal mines.