重要基础设施脆弱性评价模型及其应用

将重要基础设施脆弱性定义为威胁情景、保护作用和重要性的函数,并提出一种可定量化的重要基础设施脆弱性评价模型。模型结合系统理论知识分解系统,选取威慑、延迟、检测、响应4个评价因子评估系统各环节。模型由相关领域专家确定系统各环节权重以及为评价因子赋值,应用线性加权聚集模拟技术,综合评价因子信息;依据系统状况,建立系统各环节价值函数,运行模型得到脆弱性概率密度函数,以数学期望值表示系统脆弱性总值。并将模型应用于天津市部分供水系统,不仅得到系统各环节的实际评价值,而且可得整个供水系统脆弱性评价值,为更好地改进天津市供水系统各环节的安全运行提供了科学依据。

Vulnerability Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructure and Its Application

Firstly,the critical infrastructure vulnerability was defined as the function of threat scenario,protection function and importance in this paper.Then,a quantitative vulnerability assessment model for critical infrastructure was presented.After decomposing the system with system theories,this model selected deterrence,delay,detection,and response as the four evaluation indexes to assess each component of the system.The weight of each component and the score of each index were determined by related experts.Based on it,the value function for each component of the system was established by using linear weighted aggregation simulation technology.Through running this model,the vulnerability probability density function was obtained.The application of this model to water supply system in Tianjin city shows that this model can not only output the assessment value of each component,but also the vulnerability assessment value of the whole water supply system,which provides reference for further improving the safety operation of each component of Tianjin water supply system.