基于灰色预测法的空气污染来源及控制对策分析

以2005年~2012年三明市公布的环境空气质量指数为基础,用2005年~2010年的环境空气质量指数数据以改进的灰色预测方法来构建模型。通过对预测值与实际值出现较大差异的地方进行比较和分析,表明大型城建项目、机动车辆爆炸性增长对三明市区的环境空气质量有较大影响。因此针对相应的污染机制和源头提出整治措施,为三明市下一步的环境治理规划的制定提供指导和依据。

Analysis on the Sources of Air Pollution and Control Measures Based on Gray Prediction

According to environmental air quality index published from 2005 to 2012 of Sanming City.This paper established the model by improved gray prediction method,based on 2005 to 2010 ambient air quality index data.Through the difference comparison and analysis between predicted value and the actual value,the results indicated that large-scale urban construction projects and the explosive growth of motor vehicles had a great impact on ambient air quality of Sanming city.This paper proposed the remediation measures on corresponding pollution mechanisms pollution sources; and it provided guidance and basis of the environmental governance planning making next forward in Sanming City.