基于DEMATEL的区域洪涝灾害恢复力影响因素及评价指标体系研究——以巢湖流域为例

影响洪涝灾害恢复力的因素众多且相互关联,识别和区分这些影响因素,找到因素间互相影响程度和因果关系,对于明确洪涝灾害恢复力关键因素,快速找到需要改善的因素具有重要意义。通过分析灾害恢复力的内涵,从自然维、社会维、经济维、技术维、管理维5个维度构建区域洪涝灾害恢复力的影响因素指标体系,应用DEMATEL方法分析区域洪涝灾害恢复力影响因素之间的关系,并以巢湖流域为例凝练出适合该区域的洪涝灾害恢复力评价指标体系,结果表明,一级指标中自然维、经济维对其他因素影响最为显著,二级指标中政府财政支撑能力、土地因子、地形因子对其他影响因素的影响最大;而一级指标中经济维和社会维与其他因素关系最为密切,二级指标中政府财政支撑能力、区域经济实力、土地因子处于核心的位置。从整体影响输出上看,一级指标中原因因素共有2个,分别为自然维、经济维,且以经济维为最,二级指标中原因因素有11个,涉及五个维度,包括所有自然维中因素,并以地形因子、政府财政支撑能力、灾害政策法规为重。一级指标中结果因素有3个,分别为管理维、技术维、社会维;二级指标中共有12个,以管理维中的因素为主,相比于原因因素,通过改善结果因素可以更直接的提高区域洪涝灾害恢复力的水平。

STUDY ON THE INFLUENCE FACTORS AND EVALUATION INDEX SYSTEM OF REGIONAL FLOOD DISASTER RESILIENCE BASED ON DEMATEL METHOD-TAKING CHAOHU BASIN AS A CASE

The influencing factors of flood disaster resilience are numerous and interconnected. To identify and distinguish these influencing factors, and find the degree of influence and causality among the factors is of great significance to clarify the key factors of flood disaster resilience, and to quickly find the factors that need to be improved. Through the analysis of the connotation of resilience of disaster, we constructed an index system of influencing factors of regional flood disaster resilience from five dimensions of nature, society, economy, technology, management. We appled DEMATEL to analyze the relationship among the influencing factors of flood disaster resilience, and took Chaohu Basin as a case to refine the index system suitable for evaluation of this regional flood disaster resilience.The results showed that, the influence of natural dimension and economic dimension in the first level indexes have the most significant influence on the other factors, government financial support ability, land factor, terrain factor in the second level indexes have the largest influence on the other factors; in first level indexes the relationship between economy,society and other factors are the most close, and in second level indexes government financial support ability, strength of regional economy, land factor are in the core position; from output of the overall impact, there are two causal factors in first level indexes-nature, economy, and economic impact is of maximum, there are eleven causal factors in the second level indexes, involving five dimensions and including all factors in natural dimension, and the impacts of terrain factor, government financial support ability, disaster policies and regulations are the most important, the other three factors in first level indexes are reason-oriented factors, including management, social, technology, there are twelve factors belonging to reason-oriented factors, giving priority to the factors in management dimension, compared with causal factors, they can improve the level of regional flood disaster resilience by improving the reason-oriented factors more directly.