黄河上游南水北调西线工程可调水量及风险分析

南水北调西线工程调水区水资源丰富,生态环境脆弱,当地社会经济用水量很少,生态环境用水是决定调水区可调水量的关键。论文综合分析了引水坝址下游河道生态环境用水,并将其作为主要约束条件,提出了南水北调西线工程可调水量。风险分析表明,该调水方案风险小,可靠性高,实施多库联合调度后,可进一步减少风险。

Available quantity of transferable water and risk analysis: West Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project in the upper reaches of the Yellow River

The area of the West Route Project of South-to-North Water Transfer,located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the marginal areas of the Qingh ai-Tibet Plateau,has sufficient water resources but fragile eco-environment ,eco-environment water demand is the key element which determines the available quantity of water transferred because of the lower water demand for local social and economic development.Considering the effect on the eco-environ-ment ,this paper gives the available quantity of transferable water in the West Route Project of South-to-North Water Transfer for the purpose of protecting the local eco-environment and de-creasing the crisis of water resources in the western areas,by taking water demand for river channel eco-environment at downstreams of the dams as the main constraints.In order to calcu-late the eco-environment water demand,low runoff and Tennant methods are used.According to the results of risk analysis,the proposed schemes of the available quantity of water transferred have high reliability and low risk.The risk will be further reduced if multi-reservoir joint opera-tion are put to effect.