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KLUM@GTAP: Introducing Biophysical Aspects of Land-Use Decisions into a Computable General Equilibrium Model a Coupling Experiment |
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| Authors: | Kerstin Ronneberger Maria Berrittella Francesco Bosello Richard S. J. Tol | ||
| Affiliation: | 1. Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum GmbH, Bundesstr. 55, 20146, Hamburg, Germany 2. Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Bundesstr. 55, 20146, Hamburg, Germany 3. International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany 4. Centro Interdipartimentale di Ricerche sulla Programmazione Informatica dell’Economia e delle Tecnologie (CIRPIET), University of Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90128, Palermo, Italy 5. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, (FEEM), Castello 5252, 30122, Venice, Italy 6. Department of Economics Business and Statistics, Università Statale di Milano, Via Conservatorio 7, 20122, Milan, Italy 7. Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands 8. Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the global agricultural land use model Kleines Land Use Model is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) Global Trade Analysis Project in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into a state-of-the-art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness and potentials of the coupled system. Reference simulations with the uncoupled models emphasise the impact and relevance of the coupling; the results of coupled and uncoupled simulations can differ by several hundred percent.
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| Keywords: | Land-use change Computable general equilibrium modeling Integrated assessment Climate change C68 R14 Q17 Q24 | ||
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