洪灾综合风险的结构特征分析

洪灾风险研究从单一风险转向综合风险，将是防洪减灾理论发展的必然趋势，而结构特征分析则是洪灾综合风险研究的首要任务。首先，应用灾害学的研究理论探讨洪水灾害的风险性，建立由致灾因子的危险性、孕灾环境的脆弱绝对性、承灾体易损相对性及用于洪灾风险宏观评价的灾情损失评估所组成的洪灾风险分析的宏观结构，并给出了相应的量化途径；其次，从模型分析的角度，分析了由洪水风险、防洪工程风险、防洪投资风险、洪泛区风险、洪水生态环境风险和防洪决策风险6个方面组成的洪灾综合风险特征，构建以洪水为中心的洪灾风险链的微观结构，并应用概率论方法，给出了相应的量化概念模型；最后，对洪灾综合风险的结构进行了系统分析。

STUCTRUAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ANALYSIS OF INTEGRATED RISK FOR FLOOD DISASTER

It is bound to be a trend in flood control and hazard mitigation that the study object of flood disaster risk converts from single risk to integrated risk. So, the constitution Characteristics analysis of integrated risk for flood disaster is the all-important role. At first, by applying the theory on Disaster Science, the macro-constitution of integrated risk for flood disaster, which is composed of the hazard of flood, absoluteness in frangibility of environment, relativity in vulnerability of disaster carrier and evaluation for the situation of a disaster loss for the sake of macro-evaluation for flood disaster risk, is presented. The corresponding quantitative approaches of them are constructed too. Second, from the point of view of model, the micro-construction of the risk chain, which consists of flood risk, engineering risk; investment risk, floodplain risk, flood eco-environment risk and decision-making risk for flood control, is structured regarding flood as the center. The corresponding quantitative conceptual model are constructed by Probability Theory. Besides, systemic analysis on the constitution of integrated risk has been carried through in the end.