上海城市生态系统健康评价

从城市生态系统健康的内涵出发，采用压力、状态、响应机制构建出城市生态系统健康指标体系框架；运用主成分分析确定出主要指标及权重；并针对目前此类研究中指标评价标准的不确定性问题，建立模糊优选评价模型，从时间纵向上判断城市生态系统的走势；利用所建立的评价方法，以上海城市生态系统为例，最终筛选出3大类25项敏感性评价指标体系进行评价。评价结果表明：从1996-2002年间，上海城市的生态系统健康指标由0.37缓慢上升至0.46，表明上海城市自然生态环境与社会、经济发展的协调性在逐渐加强,但健康改善的程度并不显著，部分指标有所恶化，与2005年城市规划目标值0.72相比，系统现阶段离社会期望值还有很大的差距。本研究为上海城市进一步的生态规划提供可靠的背景状况和研究依据。

ASSESSMENT OF URBAN ECOSYSTEM HEALTH IN SHANGHAI

According to the concept of ecosystem health, the index system of urban ecosystem health was set up by using the frame of pressure, status and response. The principal components method was used to find out main indexes with their weights assessed. Then Fuzzy optimal assessment model was used to predict the trend of system development, which could avoid the problem of unknown standard value of index in other researches. Combined with urban planning targets, the model could be effectively used to assess the urban ecosystem health. As a case study in Shanghai, the results showed that Shanghai urban ecosystem health had been improved during the years of 1995 to 2000, indicating that the development of environment, society and economic became harmonious, while some of the indexes were bad and a gap still existed between the current status and the expected of the system.