Assessment of uncertainties in a long range atmospheric transport model: Methodology, application and implications in a UK context |
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Authors: | Page T Whyatt J D Metcalfe S E Derwent R G Curtis C |
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Affiliation: | a Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, LA1 4YQ, UK b School of Geography, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK c Rdscientific, Newbury, Berkshire RG14 6LH UK d ECRC, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK |
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Abstract: | Acid deposition models are inherently simplified representations of real world behaviour and their performance is best evaluated by comparison with observations. National and international acid rain policy assessments handle observed and modelled deposition fields in different ways. Here, both the observed and modelled deposition fields are seen as uncertain and the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework is used to choose acceptable sets of model input parameters that minimise the differences between them. These acceptable sets of model parameters are then used to estimate deposition budgets to the UK and to provide a probabilistic treatment of excess deposition over environmental quality standards (critical loads). |
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Keywords: | HARM GLUE Uncertainty Critical loads |
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