华北地震区第三、第四活动期M≥6 3/4级地震时、空分布对比分析

本文通过对华北地震区第三、第四活动期强震(M≥6 3/4)的时序演进和震场迁移进行了对比分析,发现这两个活动期的强震之间存在着时序对应关系。并由此出发对华北地震区第八幕最大地震的发生时间及地震活动区域作了推测。文章同时对甘肃、宁夏地震区的强震也作了时序对比,认为华北地震区在第八幕后将有较长时间的平静,强震活动将转移到西部的甘肃、宁夏地区。

COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES (M≥6 3/4) IN THE 3rd AND 4th ACTIVE PERIODS IN NORTH CHINA

By comparing and analysing the time ordering and space distribution of the strong earthquakes (M≥6.75) during third and fourth active periods in North China, it is found that there exist a corresponding relationship between the time orders of the active periods. Upon this correspondence the time and the active area of the strongest earthquake in the 8th episode is predicted. The paper also analysis the time ordering of the strong earthquakes in Gansu-Ningxia seismic area, and points out that there will be a long period of repose after the 8th episode in North China, and the strong seismic activities will migrate to Gansu-Ningxia area.