基于CREAM的高温熔融金属作业人员可靠性分析

为了对冶金企业高温熔融金属作业人员的可靠性进行评估和量化,基于认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM),提出了适用于高温熔融金属作业的人员可靠性分析方法。该方法给出了通用效能条件(Common Performance Condition, CPC)的评估细则,采用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)与熵值法相结合的CPC因子权重确定方法,利用模糊数学原理实现CPC因子输入的模糊化,从而计算高温熔融金属作业人员失误概率(HEP)和可靠度。通过对炼钢冶炼作业的人员可靠性分析的结果表明:该方法合理有效,具有一定的应用性。

Reliability Analysis of Molten Metal Operators in High Temperatures based on CREAM

A method that is suitable for molten metal operation in high temperatures based on cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)was presented for evaluation and quantification of the human reliability of molten metal operation in high temperatures for metallurgy industry.Detailed evaluation rules of common performance condition(CPC)were given.The CPC factor weight was obtained by combining the analytical hierarchy process with the entropy method.The fuzzification of loading of the CPC factor was realized by fuzzy mathematics.So,the human error probability(HEP)and reliability of operators of molten metal in high temperatures can be calculated.The proposed model was tested on reliability analysis of steelmaking and smelting operators,and it showed that the established model was reasonable and practical.