Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India |
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Authors: | Rajesh Nair Shukla P.R. Kapshe Manmohan Garg Amit Rana Ashish |
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Affiliation: | (1) Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, 380015, India;(2) Public Systems Group, Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, 380015, India;(3) Project Management Cell, NATCOM Project, Winrock International India, 7, Poorvi Marg, Vasant Vihar, New Delhi -, 110057, India;(4) Social and Environmental Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506 Ibaraki, Japan |
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Abstract: | In the coming years India faces greatchallenges in energy and environment. Thepath of development chosen by India, uponwhich lies the future growth of energy andemission trajectories, would be greatlyinfluenced by technological developmentsboth within and outside the country,economic cooperation between countries, andglobal cooperation in limiting greenhousegas emissions. This paper discusses theintegrated modeling system used fordeveloping and analyzing the long-termtrajectories and presents results for thescenarios developed. In the context ofongoing market reforms two scenarios –accelerated and decelerated reforms – aredeveloped depicting fast and slow progressin energy sector reforms compared toexpectations in the baseline scenario.Accelerated market reforms would spurimprovements in technological efficiencies.Reforms would lower investment risks inIndia, thereby stimulating increased levelsof foreign direct investment. On the otherhand in decelerated reform scenarioeconomic growth is lower than that in thebase case, there is low access to capital,and technological improvements lag behindthose in the base case. In another scenariowe assume specific policy interventions forpenetration of renewable technologies overthe baseline scenario, for promotion andaccelerated deployment of renewable energytechnologies over and above the baselineassumptions. A scenario with carbon(c) constraints has also been developed and theresults discussed. |
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Keywords: | carbon-constrained scenario integrated energy emissions modelling long-term modelling market reforms regional energy markets renewable energy |
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