A case study of development and application of a streamlined control and response modeling system for PM2.5 attainment assessment in China

This article describes the development and application of a streamlined air control and response modeling system with a novel response surface modeling-linear coupled fitting method and a new module to provide streamlined model data for PM_2.5 attainment assessment in China. This method is capable of significantly reducing the dimensions required to establish a response surface model, as well as capturing more realistic response of PM_2.5 to emission changes with a limited number of model simulations. The newly developed module establishes a data link between the system and the Software for Model Attainment Test—Community Edition (SMAT-CE), and has the ability to rapidly provide model responses to emission control scenarios for SMAT-CE using a simple interface. The performance of this streamlined system is demonstrated through a case study of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China. Our results show that this system is capable of reproducing the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulation results with maximum mean normalized error < 3.5%. It is also demonstrated that primary emissions make a major contribution to ambient levels of PM_2.5 in January and August (e.g., more than 50% contributed by primary emissions in Shanghai), and Shanghai needs to have regional emission control both locally and in its neighboring provinces to meet China's annual PM_2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standard. The streamlined system provides a real-time control/response assessment to identify the contributions of major emission sources to ambient PM_2.5 (and potentially O₃ as well) and streamline air quality data for SMAT-CE to perform attainment assessments.