近49年中国夏季制冷度日数的变化

利用全国531个气象站1960~2008年逐日平均气温资料，分析了近49 a来我国夏季制冷度日数的变化趋势，并以浙江省为例分析了制冷度日数与夏季空调降温电力负荷的关系。主要结论如下：我国日平均温度等于或高于26℃的日数（1971~2000年平均）大于10 d，夏季有制冷需求的站点主要分布在新疆、四川盆地和太行山 巫山 雪峰山一线以东地区，以及云南干热河谷地区。1960~2008年我国黄河以北地区夏季有制冷需求的站点6~9月平均气温从20世纪90年代中期开始呈现出较明显的上升趋势，使得制冷日数和度日数都相应增加；黄河以南、南岭以北地区近49 a来6~9月平均气温线性趋势不明显，制冷度日数变化不大；南岭以南地区6~9月气温持续上升，夏季制冷度日数的增加最为显著。以浙江省为例的分析显示，制冷度日数与夏季空调降温电力负荷有很好的线性相关关系，可以用来预测降温耗电量。

CHANGE OF COOLING DEGREE DAY IN CHINA DURING 1960~2008

Using daily average temperature data during 1960~2008 from 531 weather stations in China,the characteristics of cooling degree day change were analyzed and the relationship between cooling degree day and cooling electricity load in summer was also investigated by taking Zhejiang province as an example in this paper.The results showed that the number of days with daily mean temperature above 26℃ were more than 10 days,and the stations with cooling requirements mostly distributed in Xinjiang,Sichuan,dry hot valley in Yunnan and to the east of Taihang Wushan Xuefeng mountains.During the period of 1960~2008,June September mean temperature of stations in northern China increased significantly after mid 1990s and resulted in the increase of cooling degree day in summer,while stations between south of the Yellow River and north of Nanlin Mountain showed little changing trend.The June September mean temperature of stations to the south of Nanlin Mountains increased continuously and resulted in the significant increase of cooling degree day accordingly.In addition,there was a significant positive relationship between daily cooling degree days and daily cooling electricity load during summer in Zhejiang province,and the cooling degree day could be used to predicte cooling electricity consumption.〖