Ecological risk assessment based on freshwater consumption dynamic analysis of Xiamen City,China

Freshwater is the lifeline of a city. Shortages in urban water supply and ecological losses occur when freshwater supply capacity and demand are imbalanced. Therefore, systematic research on the risk of freshwater consumption in urban areas is urgently demanded. A scientific understanding of the risk of urban water consumption will contribute to the efficient use of freshwater resources and ensure the stability and sustainable development of cities. Taking Xiamen City as the study area, we evaluated the ecological risk of freshwater consumption scenarios in the years 2020 and 2030 using a multilevel characterization method for urban ecological risk, stepwise regression analysis, and a gray prediction model. The results of our evaluation show that freshwater consumption in Xiamen is highly correlated with the total population, the crop acreage, the proportion of secondary industry, and the treatment rate of domestic sewage. In the 2020 and 2030 scenarios, freshwater consumption in Xiamen City is predicted to increase. Meanwhile, with the construction of water conservancy facilities, the supply capacity of freshwater in Xiamen City will be greatly improved. Therefore, the ecological impacts of freshwater consumption in the 2020 and 2030 scenarios were at the middle and low levels. In this study, the validity of the multilevel characterization method described herein for urban ecological risk has been confirmed. However, calculation of scenario probability is a difficult problem in the framework of this method, and future research should address this issue.