Investigative consequence analysis: A case study research of beirut explosion accident |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Ophthalmology, American University of Beirut, Beirut 113-6044, Lebanon;2. Lebanon Medical School, American University of Beirut, Beirut 113-6044, Lebanon;3. Department of Internal Medicine, American University of Beirut, Beirut 113-6044, Lebanon;4. Lebanon Emergency Department, Hotel Dieu de France, Beirut, Lebanon;5. Department of Neurosurgery, Al-Zahraa Hospital University Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon;6. Emergency Department, Middle East Institute of Health Hospital, Bsalim, Lebanon;7. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Al Mashrek French Hospital of the Levant, Beirut, Lebanon;8. Emergency Department, Haroun Hospital, Zalka, Lebanon;9. Emergency Department, Hospital Notre Dame Maritime, Byblos, Lebanon;10. Emergency Department, Keserwan Medical Center, Jounieh, Lebanon;11. Department of Ophthalmology, Eye and Ear International, Holy Spirit University of Kaslik, Dbayeh, Lebanon;12. Department of Ophthalmology, Beirut Eye and Ear Specialty Hospital, Saint Joseph University, Beirut, Lebanon;13. Department of Neurological Surgery, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, USA;1. School of Chemical Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210094, China;2. Shanghai Xinli Power Equipment Institute, Shanghai, 201109, China;1. Department of International Shipping, School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, China;2. School of Transportation Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing, 211189, China |
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| Abstract: | Around 15:00 GMT on August 4th, an explosion occurred in the warehouse facility storing Ammonium Nitrate (AN) at Beirut port, Lebanon. The explosion resulted in more than 178 fatalities and injured more than 6500 people, and also left an estimated 300,000 people homeless and registered as an equivalent to a 3.3 magnitude earth quake. The accident was considered to be the largest of its kind and the most severe anthropological disaster of the decade, the financial loss the nation was subjected to post the explosion was estimated to be around $ 15 billion as informed by the governor. The storage conditions of ammonium nitrate at Beirut port is not definitively known to anyone, and there is no documentation provided so far from the authorities regarding the same. This work focuses on the investigation & consequence analysis of the explosion using TNT equivalent approach. The overpressure and the impulse obtained from TNT calculations are used in probit models to assess the damages caused on human beings and structures. The results obtained in this investigative approach are then utilized to provide an analytical inference relative to the damage proxy map reported by the advance rapid imaging analysis team from NASA. Also, this work examines the existing standards, fire safety measures and legal regulations for ammonium nitrate facilities in the region. AN explosion during storage like other fire and explosion accidents are definitely preventable owing to the technological advancements and developments to prevent or extinguish controllable fires. The significance of this work relates to the methods for calculation of consequences of explosion that are happening due to the storage of highly hazardous explosive materials in excessive quantities and insists the necessity of incorporating adequate safety measures while storing such reactive and hazardous materials. |
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| Keywords: | Lebanon Ammonium nitrate Explosion Accident investigation Consequence analysis TNT equivalency Probit models |
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