甘肃省"资源-环境-经济系统"动态仿真研究

立足于生态经济理论,利用系统模型方法。构建了对有关区域发展政策的可能结果进行动态仿真的模拟实验室。对甘肃省“资源-环境-经济”系统运行规律进行探索和实证研究。旨在描述甘肃省“资源-环境-经济系统”可能的运行情景。为甘肃省的可持续发展决策提供参考。模型运行的结果表明：甘肃省目前的发展模式是不可持续的；技术对自然资源表现为弱可替代性；转变经济发展模式是实现甘肃省可持续发展的唯一途径。

Dynamic Simulation of Resources-Environmental-Economic System of Gansu Province, China

In this paper,we construct a simulation laboratory to demonstrate the REES's probable development scenarios stimulated by special regional developing polices based on dynamic modeling(DM). The results of the modeling could offer some advise for sustainable development of Gansu Province.The core of DM in this paper is a Cobb-Douglas production function.There are six variables in the production function,which denote production,Technology,Human capital,Man-made capital,Input of renewable natural resource,Input of unrenewable natural resource separately,and they are corresponded to the six sub-systems separately in the whole REES.In addition to the six sub-systems,there are two other sub-systems in parallel,which are Population and Environment.The eight sub-systems determine the REES's probable scenarios together by interaction with and feeding back each other.The results could tell three points,which are: the temporal development mode of Gansu province is not sustainable;the substitution rate of technology for natural resources is lower;and,the only way to realize sustainable development of Gansu province is to change the economic development mode.