Exploration of urban deposits: long-term prospects for resource and waste management.

Many materials currently in use are potentially available to become raw materials for future production if the materials are recycled instead of discarded as solid waste. However, the structure and life-expectancy of these secondary resources have not been sufficiently examined, and comprehensive methods for forecasting the availability of such materials are still lacking. This study presents a method for identifying anthropogenic material stocks in combination with the method of material flow analysis (MFA). The method was applied to copper in Switzerland as an example, with the focus on use in buildings. The exploration concept was a three-step process. First, a MFA identified the relevant stocks within the inventory of the region. Second, these stocks were inventoried through a building stock model and determination of key parameters that were defined by surveying selected buildings and from the literature. Third, the study team developed a dynamic MFA model to describe the copper stocks and flows during the period 1900-2000. The results of the copper stock calculation (in kg capita(-1)) were: buildings 79 +/- 11, infrastructure 107 +/- 25, movables 34 +/- 9, landfills 50 +/- 12. The calibrated model enabled the study team to develop resource and waste management scenarios forecasting waste flows. It is shown that the conversion of buildings into other uses may affect the waste flows significantly.