灰色协调度模型在产业用水系统分析中的应用

揭示产业用水系统的时空动态发展规律,探讨其内部的协调关系,是开展节水型社会建设规划,实现水资源可持续利用的关键。然而,目前对产业用水系统的协调性分析还缺乏较为有效的理论和方法。以往在利用协调度模型进行用水系统有序度研究时,通常采用两段叙述的线性分段函数表示,较不适用于描述产业用水系统内部要素的非线性结构。因此,针对产业用水系统的特性,利用灰关联原理建立有序度函数,以建立更适于用水系统分析的灰色协调度模型。利用该模型对上海市1997~2005年产业用水系统进行实证研究,结果显示：上海市产业用水系统基本有序,发展比较协调,其用水综合效益较大,但距离最优状态尚有潜力可挖;其中,农业用水子系统的发展较为欠缺,在未来用水规划中应予以重视。

APPLICATION OF GREY SYNERGISTIC MODEL IN THE APPRAISAL OF REGIONAL WATER USE FOR INDUSTRY

Understanding the dynamic regular patterns of development of industry water use systems for different regions and the correlated relationships among them is the key step to realize water-saving society construction and sustainable utilization of water resource.Currently,the two-section linear models were usually employed to analyze the coordination of regional industry water use systems.However,it may not fit for describing the nonlinear structure of the regional industry water use systems.Hence,a grey synergistic model,which is well adaptive to nonlinear characteristic of the industry water use system,was established based on the theory of grey.The model was applied to the industry water use system in Shanghai from 1997 to 2005.The results showed that coordination degree of industry water use system of shanghai is basically favorable.But there still exists some space for promotion of water use system in Shanghai area,especially for the agriculture sub-system to which more attention should be paid to when planning the industry water use in the future.