基于碳密度-林龄关系的黑龙江省森林碳汇潜力预测

为了量化黑龙江省森林碳储量、预测森林碳汇潜力，利用蓄积量-生物量相关方程法对黑龙江省1994-2013年的森林碳储量进行估算，并依据1994-2013年4次全国森林资源清查中黑龙江省18种主要森林类型各林龄组数据，建立主要森林类型碳密度与林龄之间的关系；在此基础上，结合《黑龙江省林地保护利用规划（2010-2020）》预测2014-2020年黑龙江省森林的碳储量，并分析其碳汇潜力.结果表明:黑龙江省各森林类型碳密度与林龄关系拟合较好，18种森林类型中有14个的R2大于0.9；黑龙江省1994-2013年4次森林资源清查中森林碳储量分别为693.2、676.3、741.1和805.2 Tg；预计在第九次全国森林资源清查（2014-2018年）中，黑龙江森林碳储量将达到844.0 Tg，并且在预估期间其碳储量逐年递增，2020年将达到868.1 Tg.如果2013年黑龙江省现有森林都达到过熟林，其碳储量将会达到1.40×103 Tg，具有很高的碳汇潜力.为了进一步增加黑龙江省碳汇潜力，建议加强省内寒温带、温带山地针叶林和阔叶混交林的保护；在更新造林上要侧重于有固碳优势的森林类型（如赤松、杨树等）；加大对赤松、针阔混等近熟林、成熟林的保护力度，控制过熟林的数量. 

Prediction of Forest Carbon Sink Potential in Heilongjiang Province:the Carbon Density-Age Relationship-Based Approach

In order to quantify the forest carbon storage in Heilongjiang Province, predict the carbon sequestration potential and provide suggestions for future forest development, the forest carbon storage of Heilongjiang Province was estimated between 1994 and 2013 by the method of stock volume-biomass correlation equation, and the relationship between forest carbon density and age of stand was established based on the age group data of 18 main kinds of forest types in Heilongjiang Province cited from the National Forest Inventory.Based on Heilongjiang Province's Provincial Forest Protection and Utilization Plan(2010-2020), this paper predicts Heilongjiang Province's forest carbon storage, and analyses the carbon sequestration potential of Heilongjiang.The results show that the relationship fits well between carbon density and age, and the relationship effectively reflects the growth of various forest types in Heilongjiang Province.The Heilongjiang forest carbon storage was 693.2, 676.3, 741.1 and 805.2 Tg based on the four National Forest Inventories(1994-2013).And it will reach 844.0 Tg in the next Ninth National Forest Inventory(2014-2018).In the forecast period, the forest carbon storage will reach 868.1 Tg in 2020, increasing year by year.If the existing forest in Heilongjiang Province becomes the mature forest, the provincial carbon storage will reach 1.40×103 Tg, which is a high potential carbon sink.In addition, the present study also provided countermeasures and suggestions for increasing the forest carbon storage of Heilongjiang Province:(1) Strengthen the provincial protection of coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forests in cold temperate and temperate zones; (2) Emphasize forest types which have carbon sequestration advantages in reforestation, such as pine, poplar, etc.; (3) Improve the protection of near-mature and mature forests, and control the quantity of mature forest.