基于正态随机模拟的武烈河环境健康风险评价

为了解武烈河的水环境健康状况，基于US EPA健康风险评价方法，将正态模糊数和随机模拟方法进行耦合，建立基于正态随机模拟的环境健康风险综合评价模型，对武烈河干支流主要断面进行环境健康风险评价。评价结果表明：所有监测断面的成人健康风险值和儿童健康风险值均小于最大风险可接受水平（5.0×10-5 a-1），处于可接受范围内，说明武烈河流域水环境健康风险状况良好；在已有研究工作的基础上，将三角模糊数改进为正态模糊数，考虑小概率事件发生的情况、选择99%概率所对应的风险值进行评价，使监测值模拟概率分布更加合理、预测结果概率分布更符合实际情况。

Environmental health risk assessment of Wulie River based on stochastic simulation-normal fuzzy numbers

In order to investigate potential health risks that could result from exposures to Wulie River water, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) health risk evaluation method coupled with the normal fuzzy number and stochastic simulation methods were used to build a stochastic simulation-normal fuzzy number model, and the model was then applied to several sites along the Wulie River. The results showed that health risk values for both adults and children at all monitoring sites were less than the acceptable levels, which indicates that water quality in the Wulie River was good during the sampling period. This model was further improved on the basis of existing research work, and this made the simulation probability distribution more reasonable and the prediction results more in line with the actual conditions at the site.