太湖流域洪涝灾害损失模拟及预测

太湖流域是我国经济最发达的地区之一，当遭受洪涝灾害后，经济损失极为严重。本文采用地理信息系统方法，模拟了１９９１年洪涝灾害的淹没决策提供了依据。根据预测，当２０１０年在发生１９９１年型特大洪涝淹没时，灾害经济损失将可高达７７３亿元，约为１９９１年７倍，因此太湖的防洪任务极为严峻。

The simulation and prediction of economic loss of flood and waterlogging in Taihu Lake Basin

Taihu Lake Basin is one of the most developed region in China. The economic loss may be much severe if. it is suffered from flood and waterlogging disaster. In this paper, the Submerged area and the economic loss due to flood and waterlogging disaster in 1991 in Taihu Lake Basin are simulated with geographic information system(GIS). Furthermore, the economic loss in 2010 is predicted if the basin would suffer flood and waterlogging disaster like in 1991. The results of prediction may be useful to provide a scientific basis for decision-making of flood prevention and disaster reduction. According to the prediction, the economic loss would be 77.4 billion Yuan RMB in 2010 if the basin would suffer flood and waterlogging disaster like in 1991. It would be about 7 times as the loss in 1991. Therefore the duty of flood prevention and disaster reduction is onerous.