| 龙门山地震带的大震系列——关于四川汶川8.0级大震的预报探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋明先.龙门山地震带的大震系列——关于四川汶川8.0级大震的预报探讨[J].防灾科技学院学报,2009,11(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋明先 |
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| 作者单位： | 防灾科技学院,河北三河,065201 |
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| 摘 要： | 大震系列公式:Ni=Ni-k/(1-b)k在龙门山地震带的地震研究中仍然是适用的.使用该公式处理龙门地震带可知1879年发生MS＞7.0级的地震后,约在前三十二年就能预测在茂汶川之间发生MS＞7.0级的地震,发震时间是在2008年3月27日(理论值);然后在距约二十四年,龙门山地震带西南端再次再次发生MS＞7.0级的地震,结束此次大震系列.
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| 关 键 词： | 大震系列 地震预报 龙门山地震带 汶川大地震(MS8.0) |
The Series of Large Earthquakes in the Chinese Longmenshan Mountain |
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| Jiang Mingxian.The Series of Large Earthquakes in the Chinese Longmenshan Mountain[J].Journal of Institute of Disaster-prevention Science and Technology,2009,11(1). |
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| Authors: | Jiang Mingxian |
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| Institution: | Institute of Disaster-Prevention Science and Technology;Sanhe;Hebei 065201 |
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| Abstract: | Three series of large earthquakes had been studied before 2008 year.Its formula can be used into the earthquake Lane of Chinese Longmenshan Mountain.Wenchuan earthquake(M8.0) can be predicted by that formula.Its results basically correspond with the observation value.The formula obtained from series of large earthquakes is proved to be true.That is why this formula in the large earthquake prediction of China is needed. |
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