船舶舱室火灾危险性评估方法研究

运用基于性能化仿真分析与统计理论耦合的火灾危险性评估方法,对船舶舱室火灾危险性进行评估。依据火灾动力学和火灾发展过程中不同阶段的特点,将火灾由初期、发展、蔓延到整个防火分区的过程划分为4个阶段,采用概率论和事件树的分析方法,得到了每个阶段的火灾成长概率。根据不同阶段火灾的特点,求得了各阶段火灾的临界时间,并以其为基础对火灾发生后船舶舱室平均过火面积进行了估计。计算结果表明,该方法通过对火灾过火面积的计算可以较直观地判断火灾的蔓延情况和对火灾控制较弱的设计环节。

Research on Risk Assessment Method for Cabin Fire in Ships

The cabin fire risk assessment in ships was conducted by using the methods of performance simulation analysis and probability statistics in this paper.Firstly,the fire process was divided into four phases according to fire dynamics and different characteristics in fire growing process.Then,by means of probability theory and event tree analysis,the fire growing probability and critical time for each phase were calculated,and the average burned area of ship was estimated.The calculating results indicate that the method is useful to judge the fire growing situation and identify the weak design parts of fire prevention.