ATA方法在交通事故分析中的应用

从系统工程学的角度出发,将广泛应用于系统安全研究中的事故树分析方法(ATA)应用到交通事故的分析。根据组成交通系统的四大因素(人、车、路和环境因素),总结和归纳了引起交通事故的原因。运用Fault Tree绘制软件,绘制了交通事故的事故树图。对交通事故基本事件概率的算法进行分析,提出用以平衡样本局限性的误差修正系数。并根据事故树基本原理和算法,对交通事故事故树进行最小割集分析、基本事件重要度分析和顶上事件发生概率的定性定量分析。

Application of ATA Method in Analysis the of Traffic Accidents

From the perspective of systems engineering,Fault Tree Analysis(ATA)method which is widely used in system security study is used for analysis of traffic accidents.Based on the four major elements(people,vehicles,roads and environment)comprising transport system,the causes contributing to traffic accidents are summarized and concluded.Using Fault Tree mapping software,fault tree drawings of traffic accidents are drawn.Probability algorithm of elementary events of traffic accidents is analyzed with error correction coefficients for balancing sample limitations presented.Based on the basic principle and algorithm,the analysis of traffic accidents-related fault tree is made in terms of the smallest cut-set,the elementary event importance and probability of the foundation event.