Factors influencing polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and polychlorinated dibenzofuran (PCDD/F) emissions and control in major industrial sectors：Case evidence from Shandong Province, China

Analyzing determinants that influence polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and polychlorinated dibenzofuran（PCDD/F） emissions is helpful for decision-makers to find effective and efficient ways to mitigate PCDD/F emissions. The PCDD/F emissions and the contributions of the scale effect, structure effect and technology effect to emissions from eight main industrial sectors in2006, 2008 and 2010 in Shandong Province, were calculated in this article. Total PCDD/F emissions in Shandong increased by 52.8% in 2008（614.1 g I-TEQ） and 49.7% in 2010（601.8 g I-TEQ） based on 2006（401.9 g I-TEQ）. According to the decomposition method, the largest influencing factor on PCDD/F emission changes was the composition effect（contributed 43.4%in 2008 and 120.6% in 2010 based on 2006）, which was also an emission-increasing factor.In this case, the present industrial restructuring policy should be adjusted to control the proportion of production capacities with high emission factors, such as iron ore sintering and steelmaking and the secondary non-ferrous metal sector. The scale effect increased the emissions in 2008（contributed 21.9%） and decreased the emissions in 2010（contributed-28.0%）. However, as a source control measure, the excess capacity control policy indeed had a significant role in emission reduction. The main reason for the technology effect（contributed 34.7% in 2008 and 7.4% in 2010 based on 2006） having an emission-increasing role was the weakness in implementing policies for restricting industries with outdated facilities. Some specific suggestions were proposed on PCDD/F reduction for local administrators at the end.