河南省能源强度下降的驱动因素分析——基于LMDI方法

根据能源强度的定义和能源消费总量的构成,将能源强度细分为生产能源强度和生活能源强度.生产能源强度是影响河南省能源强度变化的重要因素,而生活能源强度快速增加态势应引起高度关注.基于LMDI因素分解方法,将影响2005-2012年河南省能源强度变化的因素分解为结构效应、能源效率效应、人均GDP倒数效应和人均生活能源消费效应.结果表明,能源效率效应和人均GDP倒数效应是河南省能源强度下降的驱动力,而经济结构和人均生活能源消费效应成为河南能源强度下降的阻碍因素.为实现“十二五”河南省“双控”目标,除挖掘效率节能潜力外,实现结构节能、合理控制生活能源消费增速十分重要,提出了相应的政策建议.

Decomposition Analysis of Energy Intensity Variation in Henan Province by LMDI Method

According to the definition of energy intensity and the composition of the total energy consumption, energy intensity was divided into two parts ： Production energy intensity and household energy intensity. The production energy intensity was an important part of energy intensity in Henan Province. However, more attentions should be paid on the rapid growth of household energy intensity. Based on the LMDI method, the variations of energy intensity of Henan Province during 2005--2012 were decomposed into four factors：Economic structure, energy efficiency, the inverse of Per capita GDP, and the per capita energy consumption of household. The results showed that the effects of energy efficiency and the inverse of per capita GDP became the driving forces to the energy intensity decline in Henan Province. However, economic structure and per capita energy consumption of household were resistance factors against this decline. To meet the ＂dual control＂ goal of the Twelve - Five Year Plan in Henan, the most important approach should be the economic restructuring in order to achieve the structure energy - saving, in addition to further exploiting the potential of efficiency energy - saving. Furthermore, it was very crucial to control the rational growth of household energy consumption. Finally, it put forward corresponding policy proposal.