5G对中国碳排放峰值的影响研究

基于目前5G技术的发展情况,利用holt指数平滑法和动态分析法预测了未来20年5G基站产生的直接碳排放量.根据预测模型,5G基站建设会在2038年左右达到饱和状态,数量约为1434万个.考虑到5G技术的发展推动其他产业发展可能导致的碳排放量变化,利用投入产出法和灰度时间预测法等方法评估了5G技术引起的各行业间接碳排放量...

Influence of 5G technology on the peak of China's carbon emission

Concerning the current situation of 5G technology development, this paper predicts direct carbon emissions generated by 5G base stations in the next 20 years, with Holt index smoothing method and dynamic analysis. The predictive model showed that the construction of 5G base stations might be saturated around 2038, with the number of 14.34 million. Considering the development of 5G technology and its promotion of other industries that may affect the carbon emissions, the input-output method and grayscale time prediction method were also used to evaluate the indirect carbon emissions. The results show that, if 5G station work in low-load (lower than 30%), direct carbon emission will be 142.61 Mt per year in 2038 when carbon emission peak; or else it would be 196.26 Mt in a full-load situation. Based on two different peak-reaching scenarios of carbon emissions in China, the impacts of direct and indirect carbon emissions caused by 5G technology on peak-reaching time and peak values were comprehensively analyzed. Last, the robustness test was conducted on the predicted results. The results revealed that the impact of 5G technology on carbon emissions of industries will reach its peak in 2030 under the actual GDP scenario, with the value of 255.96 Mt, and the increase of overall carbon emissions caused by 5G technology before 2030 was dominated by indirect carbon emission, while the increase of social carbon emission after 2030 was dominated by direct carbon emission. Comprehensively considering the development of 5G technology, the peak time of China's carbon emission will be delayed by at least 2 years, and the corresponding peak carbon emission would be increased by at least 383.96 Mt. It also implied that the Chinese government had to reduce the energy consumption level of base stations, control the number of base stations and avoid the low-load operation caused by repeated construction of 5G base stations, to reduce the additional carbon emissions caused by 5G and control the total amount of carbon dioxide.