保护地生态承载力不确定性多目标优化模型研究——以黄河源区玛多县为例

为明确给出保护地综合生态承载力的实质内涵“人类活动强度阈值”，利用不确定性多目标优化方法，建立了区域保护地生态承载力优化模型.应用该模型对黄河源区玛多县进行区域保护地生态承载力评价及规模结构优化.结果表明：草畜矛盾是制约玛多县社会经济发展的瓶颈；根据《三江源国家公园总体规划》目标，在保证野生动物种群数量发展的同时畜牧业发展相对较为迅速，2020年、2025和2035年玛多县地区畜牧业（家牦牛）规模分别为287615~363303羊单位，302752~438991羊单位，378440~514679羊单位.由于保护地生态环境容量的限制，黄河源区玛多县需控制其人口与旅游规模，2020年、2025年和2035年牧民人口规模区间分别为1.25~1.65万人、1.65~1.83万人和1.863~2.135万人.2020年旅游规模最大为4.113万人次，2025年为4.700万人次，2035年为5.396万人次，在规划目标情景下旅游业发展减缓，主要是考虑了三江源国家公园规划试点以及地方规划对旅游的限制开发，旨在保护地方生物多样性以及生态环境.

Ecological carrying capacity of protected areas uncertain type multi-objective optimum model-Using Maduo County in the source region of the Yellow River as example

“Threshold value of human activity intensity” can be defined as the essence of integrated ecological carrying capacity of protected areas. In order to explore its definition, we established an optimization model of ecological carrying capacity of protected areas by using uncertainty multi-objective optimization method. The model was used to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity and optimize the scale structure of the protected area in Maduo County, the Yellow River source region. The results show that the conflict between grass and livestock was the bottleneck restricting the social and economic development of Maduo County. According to the goal of “Three-River Source National Park General Plan”, animal husbandry development was relatively rapid while ensuring the number of wildlife population. The scale of domestic yak in Maduo County will reach 287615~363303 sheep units in 2020, 302752~438991 sheep units in 2025, and 378440~514679 sheep units in 2035, respectively. Considering the limitation of the ecological environment capacity of the protected area, the scale of population and tourism should be controlled in Maduo County the source region of the Yellow River. The population scale range of herdsmen is 12500~16500 in 2020, 16500~18300 in 2025, and 18630~21350 in 2035, respectively. The largest tourism scale is 41130 person-time in 2020, 47000 person-time in 2025 and 53960 person-time in 2035. In the planning target scenario, the development of tourism slows down, which can be attributed to the pilot project of Three-River Source National Park and the restriction of local planning on tourism development, aiming to protect local biodiversity and ecological environment.