基于空气质量模式和数学规划模型的城市PM2.5达标策略——以临汾为例

为了改善城市空气质量，降低PM_2.5浓度，需要制定科学的控制策略，同时兼顾污染物减排量与减排成本效益.本文基于区域大气环境模型RegAEMS与数学规划模型，采用多目标遗传算法，探究城市大气PM_2.5污染的最优控制策略，并应用于临汾市（14类行业源、17个区域源）的PM_2.5浓度达标规划，实现污染物排放量最大和减排成本最小的双目标优化.结果表明，在PM_2.5平均浓度近200 μg/m³的重污染天气条件下，为达到PM_2.5浓度目标（75μg/m³），临汾市最大污染物允许排放量为356.7t/d，最小减排成本为3.36亿元.NO_x、SO₂、NH₃、VOCs和一次颗粒物的减排量分别为98.1，49.9，44.3，155.7和105.5t/d，减排成本分别为11.7，6.8，6.2，5.5和3.5千万元.对VOCs、NO_x、PM_2.5、NH₃和SO₂减排潜力最大的行业分别为焦化源、移动源、扬尘源、农业源和民用燃烧源，分别占所有行业5种污染物减排量的21.6%、14.1%、11%、8.6%和3.8%.钢铁行业的减排成本最高（39%）；襄汾县的减排量最大，减排成本最高（达7218万元）.

Urban PM2.5 compliance strategy based on air quality and mathematical planning model

In order to further reduce PM_2.5 concentration and improve air quality, it is necessary to formulate a more scientific control strategy, while taking into account the reduction of pollutants and the cost-effectiveness of emission reduction. Based on the regional atmospheric environment model RegAEMS and mathematical planning model, this article used a multi-objective genetic algorithm to explore the optimal control strategy for urban atmospheric PM_2.5 pollution. The method was applied to the PM_2.5 concentration compliance plan of Linfen (14types of industry sources and 17regional sources), to achieve the largest pollutant emissions and dual-objective optimization with the least cost of abatement. The results showed that to achieve PM_2.5 concentration target (75 μg/m³) under heavy pollution weather conditions where the average concentration of PM_2.5 was close to 200 μg/m³, the maximum allowable emission of pollutants in Linfen was 356.7t/d, and the minimum emission reduction cost was 336million yuan. The emission reduction of NO_x、SO₂、NH₃、VOCs and primary PM are 98.1, 49.9, 44.3, 155.7 and 105.5t/d, and the emission reduction costs were 11.7, 6.8, 6.2, 5.5 and 35million yuan. The industries with the greatest potential for reducing VOCs、NO_x、PM_2.5、NH₃ and SO₂ were coking、mobile、dust、agricultural and civil combustion sources, accounting for 21.6%、14.1%、11%、8.6% and 3.8% of the emission reduction of the 5pollutants in all industries. The steel industry had the highest emission reduction cost (39%). Xiangfen had the largest emission reduction and the highest emission reduction cost(72.18million yuan).