森林火险的序贯分析初探

本文利用森林着火危险度指标属于正态分布的特点,根据正态型序贯分析的原理,提出了确定林火危险性的序贯分析方法;建立了长白山林区5个站点森林火险的“安全域”与“危险域”的模型;并以东岗(长白山西坡)为例,作了正态型序贯分析全过程的应用示例。结果证明,利用正态型序贯分析来确定林火的等级是可行的、可靠的,具有实用价值。

The First Step In Sequential Analysis of Forest Fire Risk

As the index of forest inflammation risk factor is under normal distribution, this paper proposes the sequential analysis method to determine forest fire risk according to the theory of normally distributed sequential analysis,,and develops a model of the "satty area" and "danger area" of forest fire for five stations in forest areas of ChangBai Mountain. As an example, the whole process of normally distributed sequential analysis is performed to DongGang (the westshope of ChangBai Mountain). The result shows that it is feasible, dependable and practical to determine the rank of forest fire using the method of normally distribured sequential analysis.