未确知测度模型在爆破工程安全评价中的应用

结合当前工程爆破的实际情况,从安全管理、安全技术、安全防范三方面出发,建立了一套完备的爆破工程安全评价的二级指标体系.针对指标体系中诸多因素的不确定性问题,在未确知测度理论的基础上,构建了爆破工程安全评价的未确知测度模型.通过对单指标未确知测度、多指标综合测度的计算以及指标定权等过程,实现了对爆破工程的安全综合评价.在各评价指标权重和识别准则的确定上,分别采用了信息熵和置信度识别准则,避免了模糊层次分析法中在这两方面的缺陷,使评价结果更具客观性.实例分析表明,运用未确知测度模型进行爆破工程安全评价问题的研究,理论上是可行的,评价结果是可信的,从而为爆破工程的安全综合评价提供了一种新方法.

Application of the unascertained measurement model in the safety evaluation of blasting engineering

In combination with the actual situation of current engineering blasting,a complete second-level index system for the safety evaluation of blasting engineering was established based on the following three aspects： safety management,safety engineering and safety protection.In order to solve the problem of the uncertain factors of index system,an unascertained measurement model of the safety evaluation of blasting engineering was established based on the unascertained measurement theory.Through the process of the calculation on the unascertained measurement of single indicator and the unascertained measurement of multiple comprehensive indicators as well as the determination of index weight,safety comprehensive evaluation of the blasting engineering was realized.The information entropy and confidence identifying criterion was respectively used to ascertain the evaluation index weight and identifying criterion,the two defects of Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process comprehensive evaluation were avoided and the evaluation results were more objective in the unascertained measurement model.The analysis of the practical examples indicated that it is theoretically feasible to use the unascertained measurement model to study the problem of safety evaluation of blasting engineering and the evaluation results are credible,thus provides a new way for safety comprehensive evaluation of blasting engineering under unascertained conditions.