黑龙江省玉米低温冷害风险综合评估模型研究

论文利用黑龙江省进行农作物生育期观测的24个气象台站1961-2009年逐日平均气温资料和1980-2009年玉米生育期资料,采用"5-9月的月平均气温和的距平"与"黑龙江省玉米低温冷害综合指标体系"对黑龙江省1961年以来低温冷害危险性进行了评估;以黑龙江省75个县的玉米种植面积为指标对暴露性进行了评估;以玉米单产为基础进行了灾损敏感性评估;最终建立了黑龙江省玉米低温冷害风险综合评估模型。根据模型,把黑龙江省划分为高、次高、中等、次低、低等5个风险区,大、小兴安岭、南部山区为高或次高风险区,松嫩平原北部处于次高风险区,三江平原东部为低风险区。该风险评估模型有助于提升黑龙江省低温冷害定量评估能力,同时对其它农业气象灾害风险评估模型的建立可以起到借鉴和参考作用。

The Comprehensive Risk Evaluation Model of Chilling Injury to Maize in Heilongjiang Province

To analyze the risk of chilling injury to maize further, this article focuses on the construction of an evaluation model, which includes the temperature which represents the hazard factor, exposure degree and sensitivity level, and is used to judge the risk of chilling injury to maize in Heilongjiang Province. The data in this research includes daily average temperature data from 1961 to 2009, date of different growing status from 1980 to 2009 of the 24 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province, and the spatial resolution of GIS data is 1 km×1 km. Method of research is mainly AHP. Initially, the risk of hazard factor from 1961 to 1979 is calculated by adopting the criterion which is "Anomaly of Sum of Monthly Average Temperature from May to September" and that from 1980 to 2009 is calculated by adopting the criterion of "Comprehensive Decision System of Chilling Injury for Maize in Heilongjiang Province", respectively. Then, comparing the planting area of maize of 75 stations as the exposure degree index, risk zones of exposure degree are concluded. After that, risk zones of the sensitivity of chilling injury are outlined based on per unit area yield of maize. At last, this article sets down a comprehensive evaluation model of chilling injury to maize based on the hazard factor, exposure degree and sensitivity level in Heilongjiang Province. According to this model, Heilongjiang is divided into five zones, which are high risk zone, sub-high risk zone, medium risk zone, sub-low risk zone and low risk zone. Specifically, Daxinganling mountain, Xiaoxinganling mountain and southern mountain areas are high or sub-high risk zones mainly because of lack of enough heat for crop growing. Despite the risk of hazard factor being medium, the northern part of Songnen Plain is sub-high risk zone considering its high exposure degree and sensitivity level. Because the risk of hazard factor, exposure degree and sensitivity level are all low or sub-low, the risk of chilling injury to maize in the eastern part of Sanjiang Plain is low. In all, the model can not only help to promote the capability of quantitative assessment of chilling injury to maize in Heilongjiang Province, but can be used for reference to construct the damage evaluation models of other agricultural & meteorological disasters as well.