基于粮食生产能力的耕地非农可转量测算模型

土地需求的增长性与土地稀缺性之间的不协调是土地利用规划需要重点解决的问题,合理确定区域耕地资源可转化为非农建设用地的数量具有重要价值。论文在保障区域粮食安全前提下,以耕地粮食生产能力为切入点,构建了基于粮食生产能力的耕地非农可转量测算模型(MMCLNT),并以河北省卢龙县为例,验证了该模型的可应用性。研究结果表明:①以粮食生产能力为基础的耕地非农可转量是一数值区间,其数值取决于非农转化耕地的质量;②应用该模型得到2020年卢龙县耕地非农可转量取值范围为851.87~1 547.86 hm²。以粮食生产能力为切入点的区域耕地非农转化定量分析,为协调土地利用规划提供了新的思路与方法。

Model for Measuring Cultivated Land That Could Be Non-agriculturally Transformed Based on Crop Productivity

The relation between the increasing land demand and the security of cultivated land resources is inconsonant. And the inconsonance is always the core problem to be solved in the land use planning. It is valuable to logically predict the quantity of cultivated land resources which could be transformed into land for non-agricultural purpose of a region. Taking grain productivity as a point of penetration, this paper built the model for measuring cultivated land that could be transformed into land for non-agricultural usage (MMCLNT) based on production capacity. Taking Lulong County as an example, the applicability of this model is verified. The study results indicated that: 1)The transferring quantity lies between a data interval, the value depends upon the quality of cultivated land that could be transformed for non-agricultural purpose. 2)Taking Lulong County as an example, the quantity of cultivated land that could be non-agriculturally transformed is 851.87-1547.86 hm² from now on to the year 2020. Taking grain productivity as a point of penetration, the quantitative analysis about the cultivated land that could be non-agriculturally transformed provides a new method to harmonize the relationship between the land use planning and economic and social development.