Meteorological air pollution potential for Santiago,Chile: Towards an objective episode forecasting

The geography and climate of the Santiago basin are, in general, unfavorable for the diffusion of air pollutants. Consequently, extreme events occur frequently during the high pollution season extending from April to August. The meteorological conditions concurrent with those extreme events are mainly associated with the leading edges of coastal lows that bring down the base of the semipermanent temperature inversion reducing the dirunal growth of the surface mixed layer. In order to produce an objective 12 to 24-hour episode forecast, a two-way multivariate discriminant analysis has been used in the definition of a meteorological air-pollution potential index (MAPPI), separating high and low meteorological air-pollution potential days. The same procedure has been applied in the selection of the most efficient predictors for the MAPPI objective forecast, based on 12 and 24 UTC radiosonde data at Quintero, about 100 km to the NW of Santiago. Results indicate about 70% correctly forecasted days, with satisfactory skill-scores relative to persistency. The strong persistency characterizing the most efficient predictors in the 12-hour objective forecast scheme, makes the prediction of the first and last days of any particular air-pollution potential episode particularly difficult. To overcome this problem, a new set of predictors based on continuous measurements near the level of the top of the temperature inversion layer (900 hPa during air-pollution episodes) is being tested. Preliminary results indicate that the time-integrated zonal wind component at that level is a reliable precursor for both the onset and the end of air-pollution potential episodes.