工业化、城市化对耕地数量变化影响差异分析

工业化、城市化进程对耕地资源数量变化产生了重要影响，但工业化、城市化对耕地资源数量的影响机制存在差异。以1990~2005年江苏省数据为基础，通过建立向量自回归模型，运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法，分析了工业化、城市化对耕地数量变动率影响的差异。结果表明，耕地数量变动率、工业化水平和城市化水平均呈非平稳变动趋势，但工业化、城市化对耕地数量变动率的作用方向不同，工业化对耕地数量变动率产生负效应，城市化则产生正效应。同时，城市化对耕地数量变化的影响大于工业化带来的影响，并且城市化的影响比工业化的影响更为持久。这意味着，〖JP2〗江苏省工业化和城市化快速增长时期，城市化是耕地数量变化的首要原因。因此，在当前江苏省工业化与城市化非平衡发展的情况下，合理控制城市化进程，提高城市化质量，对于耕地保护具有积极意义。〖

ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT INFLUENCES OF INDUSTRIALIZATION AND URBANIZATION ON QUANTITY CHANGES IN CULTIVATED LAND

The advance of industrialization and urbanization has a huge influence on quantity change in cultivated land;however,difference exists about the influence mechanism of industrialization and urbanization on quantity changing rate of cultivated land.Vector auto regression model was built in this article,and according to the data of Jiangsu Province (1990~2005),the influence variation of industrialization and urbanization on quantity changing rate of cultivated land was analyzed with the application of impulse response function and variance decomposition.It is shown that changing rate of cultivated land,industrialization and urbanization level show non stationary changing trend,but the influences of industrialization and urbanization on the quantity changes of cultivated land are different with each other.Industrialization has a negative effect on changing rate of cultivated land;urbanization has a positive effect on this rate.At the same time,the influence of urbanization on quantity change in cultivated land will be greater than that produced by industrialization，and the influence of urbanization will be more permanent than that of industrialization,indicating that urbanization plays an important role in changing quantity of cultivated land in the period of industrialization and urbanization's soaring increase in Jiangsu.Therefore,considering the imbalance development of industrialization and urbanization in Jiangsu,the conclusion that controlling industrialization reasonably and advancing quality of urbanization will be greatly meaningful for cultivated land protection.〖