复杂系统中人误原因因素的层次分析法

介绍和评析了人误分析历史上有重要影响的几种人误原因因素分类方法:传统人因分类法、信息处理分类法和认知系统工程分类法.基于认知可靠性及失误分析方法(CREAM)的人误原因因素分类,运用层次分析法(AHP)基本原理,建立了大规模复杂人-机系统人误原因因素层次结构模型及相应的AHP程序,并以JCO公司超临界事故为实例进行了分析.分析和应用结果表明,本文所建立的人误原因因素层次结构模型及AHP程序能够辨识出大规模复杂人-机系统中人误的主要原因因素,进而寻找出最优预防方案,对预防和减少此类人误事故的发生有积极意义.

Analytic hierarchy process of human error cause factors in complex system

This paper aims at introducing and evaluating a few human-faults affecting factors and their classification in influencing taxonomy;information processing taxonomy and cognitive engineering taxonomy systems.Having made a conscientious comparison,the author believes that CREAM(cognitive reliability and error analysis method) is the most suitable method to be chosen as the foundation to present our research results.CREAM is the most representative method in cognitive system engineering.Applying the basic principle of Analytic Hierarchy Processing on the basis of CREAM,the author has set up a hierarchical structure model for analyzing human-faults affecting factors in extensively complicated man-machine system and corresponding procedure of AHP,and finally has brought forward an example of its application to the JCO supercritical accident analysis.The author of the paper has also demonstrated how to use the hierarchical structure model of human error dominant factors and AHP analysis procedure,which can help researchers to distinguish between the human error dominant factors in an extensively complicated man-machine system,and then try to look for the optimum scheme of prevention,so as to be able to heighten the awareness of operational error-prevention and reduce the occurrence of such human errors.