Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management |
| |
Authors: | H. E. Markus Meier Helén C. Andersson Berit Arheimer Chantal Donnelly Kari Eilola Bo G. Gustafsson Lech Kotwicki Tina-Simone Neset Susa Niiranen Joanna Piwowarczyk Oleg P. Savchuk Frederik Schenk Jan Marcin Węsławski Eduardo Zorita |
| |
Affiliation: | 1. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 601 76, Norrk?ping, Sweden 2. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 426 71, V?stra Fr?lunda, Sweden 3. Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden 4. Department of Marine Ecology, Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences, 55 Powstancow Warszawy Street, 81-712, Sopot, Poland 5. Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, Department of Water and Environmental Studies, Link?ping University, 601 74, Norrk?ping, Sweden 6. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden 7. Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21481, Geesthacht, Germany 8. Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, 21502, Geeshacht, Germany
|
| |
Abstract: | We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission. |
| |
Keywords: | Baltic Sea Ecosystem approach to management Baltic Sea Action Plan Climate change Eutrophication Multi-model ensemble approach |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|