How environmental conditions impact mosquito ecology and Japanese encephalitis: An eco-epidemiological approach |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, People''s Republic of China;2. Discipline of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia;3. UMMISCO, UMI 209 IRD–UPMC, 93142 Bondy, France;4. Eco-Evolutionary Mathematic, IBENS UMR 8197, ENS, 75230 Paris Cedex 05, France;5. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People''s Republic of China;6. State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control (SKLID), Department of Viral Encephalitis, Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People''s Republic of China;7. Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Hangzhou, People''s Republic of China;8. School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland 4059, Australia;9. Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA;1. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;2. Section of Epidemiology, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland |
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| Abstract: | Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of the major vector-borne diseases in Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific region, posing a threat to human health. In rural and suburban areas, traditional rice farming and intensive pig breeding provide an ideal environment for both mosquito development and the transmission of JEV among human beings. Combining surveillance data for mosquito vectors, human JE cases, and environmental conditions in Changsha, China, 2004–2009, generalized threshold models were constructed to project the mosquito and JE dynamics. Temperature and rainfall were found to be closely associated with mosquito density at 1, and 4 month lag, respectively. The two thresholds, maximum temperature of 22–23 °C for mosquito development and minimum temperature of 25–26 °C for JEV transmission, play key roles in the ecology of JEV. The model predicts that, in the upper regime, a 1 g/m3 increase in absolute humidity would on average increase human cases by 68–84%. A shift in mosquito species composition in 2007 was observed, and possibly caused by a drought. Effective predictive models could be used in risk management to provide early warnings for potential JE transmission. |
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