Uncertainty analysis of parameters for modeling the transfer and fate of benzo(a)pyrene in Tianjin wastewater irrigated areas

A Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty analysis of three key parameters (local coal consumption rate Q(1L), dry deposition velocity of aerosol particulate Kp and biodegradation rate of benzo(a)pyrene in soil and sediment K(R3)) was conducted in this study. Results of the simulation indicate that the three parameters were influenced by uncertainty and that all equilibrium concentrations in the four bulk compartments and various sub-compartments were log-normally distributed. However, the results also indicated that among the six primary transfer fluxes, erosion associated with solids in soil and deposition associated with solids in water, along with output from sewers were also log-normally distributed, while deposition from air to soil and biodegradation in soil and sediment followed normal distributions. The effect of uncertainty on the model results of the three key parameters was derived using a comparison of upper and lower of confidence interval boundaries at the 95% level of confidence. The results reveal that uncertainty in the key parameters had a more significant influence on equilibrium concentrations of the chemical in the bulk compartments of soil and sediment than on concentrations in the other two bulk compartments, various sub-compartments and the six predominant transfer fluxes.