| 钢铁企业动力管道物理爆炸事故风险模糊综合评判 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈文瑛.钢铁企业动力管道物理爆炸事故风险模糊综合评判[J].中国安全科学学报,2007,17(12):86-91. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈文瑛 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室,北京,100081;首都经济贸易大学安全与环境工程学院,北京,100026 |
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| 摘 要： | 以风险评价理论为基础,根据事故风险率由事故发生可能性和严重性共同确定的原则,应用模糊关系合成原理将影响事故发生可能性和严重性的风险因素进行定量描述,同时应用层次分析法确定各因素权重,建立了钢铁企业动力管道物理爆炸事故风险模糊综合评判模型,最终应用风险矩阵法直观显示出该事故的风险等级。以某钢铁企业为例说明完整的动力管道物理爆炸事故的风险模糊综合评判过程,模型计算结果基本反映该钢铁企业动力管道物理爆炸事故的风险实际水平。
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| 关 键 词： | 层次分析法(AHP) 模糊综合评判 动力管道物理爆炸 风险矩阵 风险评价 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-3033（2007）12-0086-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-09-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-11-30 |
Comprehensive Fuzzy Evaluation on Physical Explosion Risk of Power Conduit in Steel and Iron Plants |
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| CHEN Wen-ying.Comprehensive Fuzzy Evaluation on Physical Explosion Risk of Power Conduit in Steel and Iron Plants[J].China Safety Science Journal,2007,17(12):86-91. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Wen-ying |
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| Abstract: | According to the risk assessment theory and the principle that accident risk is determined by accident probability and accident severity, the risk factors affecting accident probability and accident severity is quantitatively described by use of fuzzy relation synthesis. Then, a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model for physical explosion risk of power conduit in steel and iron plants is established based on the factors' weight calculation with AHP (analytic hierarchy process), and a risk matrix is used to directly show the risk level of the accident. Finally, an application example for this model is demonstrated, which shows that this result obtained by this model is basically in accord with the actuality. |
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| Keywords: | analytic hierarchy process(AHP) fuzzy synthetic evaluation physical explosion risk of power conduit risk matrix risk assessment |
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