石油安全指标体系与综合评价

为科学评价我国石油安全的程度,从国内资源禀赋、国内生产能力、国际市场可得性和国家应急保障能力等4个方面,设计了石油安全评价指标体系。采用德尔菲法、主成分分析法,选取储采比、储量替代率、石油消费对外依存度、石油进口集中度、国际原油价格和国内石油储备水平等6个个指标,构成一个新的综合指标:石油安全度,用其对我国石油安全形势进行定量评价。将石油安全度的安全警戒划分为五级:I级1～0.8,基本安全;II级0.8～0.6,弱安全;III级0.6～0.4,不安全;Ⅳ级0.4～0.2,很不安全;V级0.2以下,严重不安全。1993-2004年,我国石油安全度为0.54～0.75,处于弱安全到不安全之间。

Indicator System and Comprehensive Appraisal for Petroleum Security

Petroleum security is highly significant for the national economic development.With the rapid growth of economy in China,the contradiction between petroleum supply and demand has become further sharpened due to the impact of domestic petroleum shortage and petroleum geopolitics,and so the problem of petroleum security is becoming more and more apparent. In order to appraise the situation of China's petroleum security scientifically,this paper firstly introduced 24 indicators to design an evaluating system.The system included the following four aspects:(1)domestic petroleum resources gifts,(2)domestic petroleum throughput capacity,(3)availability from the international market,and(4)domestic emergency response and mana,gement ability.Then,the study adopted the Delphi technique and the principal components analysis method and chose six factors from the system to form a new integrated index,namely,the petroleum security degree.The six factors were the domestic crude oil reserve,production ratio,the domestic crude oil reserve replacement ratio,the dependence of domestic petroleum consump,tion on import,the concentration ratio of domestic petroleum imports,the international crude oil prices,and the domestic petroleum reservation storage level.Finally,this research applied the integrated index to make a quantitative appraisement on China's petroleum security in recent years. The equation of the petroleum security degree is: P■=■W■×U■ i=1,2,...,n where Pi is the petroleum security degree in the i th year;Wij is the j th factor's dimensionless observation values in the i th year;and Uj is the j th factor's dimensionless weight parameter. The petroleum security degree(PSD) is divided into five grades in terms of the integrated index values: Grade I:the PSD is 1-0.8.Only very few factors are in a state of insecurity,the risk of petroleum supply is the lowest,the situation is generally safe. Grade II:the PSD is 0.8-0.6.Only minority of the factors are in a state of insecurity,the risk of petroleum supply is low,the situation is weakly safe. Grade III:the PSD is 0.6-0.4.Nearly half or more than half of the factors are in a state of insecurity,the risk of petroleum supply is high,the situation is unsafe. Grade IV:the PSD is 0.4-0.2.Majority of the factors are in a state of insecurity,the risk of petroleum supply is higher,the situation is strongly unsafe. Grade V:the PSD is below 0.2.Overwhelming majority of the factors are in a state of insecurity,the risk of petroleum supply is the highest,the situation is severely unsafe. The conclusion shows that the China's petroleum security degree is 0.54-0.75 during 1993-2004,between Grade II and III,i.e.from "weak safety "to"unsafety",therefore,this situation should be paid more attention to.This research also used the same criterion and the same method to analyze the United States'petroleum situation during the same period of time.The United States' petroleum security degree is 0.31-0.77,averaging 0.60,while China's averaging is 0.64.It seems that the China's petroleum security situation is a little better than the United States'.