基于MRIO模型的中国对外贸易隐含大气污染转移研究

采用全球多区域投入产出（MRIO）模型耦合二氧化硫（SO₂）、氮氧化物（NO_x）、可吸入颗粒物（PM₁₀）、非甲烷挥发性颗粒物（NMVOC）排放清单，定量分析了2012年中国与其他国家贸易过程中隐含的大气污染排放转移.结果显示，中国是隐含SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀排放的输出地和隐含NMVOC排放的输入地.欧盟、东亚和美国购买我国商品（如电力燃气和水供应业、重工业和矿采选业）导致的出口隐含大气污染排放量占比约为70%.中国在消耗撒哈拉以南非洲地区、中东&北非、东亚、东南亚和欧盟进口商品过程中，导致上述地区排放NMVOC为3.1×10⁶t，约占我国进口隐含NMVOC排放的69.2%.为了减轻我国对外贸易中承担的环境负担，本文从加强重污染产业管控、发展绿色经济、推进全球绿色供给链等方面提出相关政策建议.

Transfers of air pollutant emissions embodied in China’s foreign trade based on MRIO model

Multi-region input-output (MRIO) model with air pollutant inventories including sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), inhalable particulate matter (PM₁₀) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) was adopted with the quantitative analysis on transfer of atmospheric pollutant emission embodied in China's trades with other countries in 2012. The results showed that China was the exporter of embodied SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀ emissions and the importer of embodied NMVOC emissions. The embodied air pollutantemission caused by the purchase of Chinese goods (such as Electricity, Gas and Water, Heavy Industry and Mining and Quarrying) by the EU, East Asia and the USA, contributed to approximately 70% of China's export-embodied atmospheric pollution emissions. The imported merchandises from Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East & North Africa, East Asia, Southeast Asia and the EU that embodied 3.1×10⁶t NMVOC emissions consumed by China accounted for 69.2% of China's imports-embodied NMVOC. In order to alleviate the environmental burden brought by cross-border trade, this paper put forward relevant policy recommendations,such as strengthening pollution emissions control of heavy pollution industries, developing green economy and pushing forward global green supply chains, etc.