中国城市生活垃圾产生量的区域差异-基于STIRPAT模型

基于2006~2017年的中国省级面板数据，本文以STIRPAT理论模型为基础，建立固定效应模型，分别从全国和区域两个层面深入探究人口、富裕程度和技术对城市生活垃圾产生量的区域差异.研究结果表明：（1）近年来，生活垃圾产生量快速增长，同时存在显著的区域差异；（2）从人口因素看，在全国层面上城镇化水平、人口规模、家庭规模和人口老龄化的弹性系数分别是1.152、0.585、-0.478、-0.230，对生活垃圾产生量的影响程度依次减小.在东部地区，城镇化水平提升、人口规模增多和家庭规模小型化促进生活垃圾的产生，人口老龄化增加减少生活垃圾的产生.在中西部地区，城镇化的正效应和人口老龄化的负效应明显强于东部地区，人口规模的正效应和家庭规模的正效应明显弱于东部地区；（3）从经济发展看，在全国层面上居民人均消费支出与生活垃圾产生量呈现倒N型关系.在东部地区，居民人均消费支出和人均GDP的提升促进生活垃圾的产生；（4）从技术水平看，生活能源消耗强度和市容环境卫生费用的弹性系数分别为0.120、-0.0168，区域差异不明显.

Regional differences of municipal solid waste generation in China based on the STIRPAT model

Based on China's provincial-level panel data from 2006 to 2017, influences of population, affluence, and technology on the regional differences of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation from the national and regional level, respectively were studied, by adopting a fixed effect model derived from the STIRPAT theoretical model. The results showed in recent years, the generation of MSW increased rapidly and the changes varied significantly across regions. From the perspective of population, the impact of urbanization level, population size, family size, and population aging on MSW generation decreased in turn at the national level, with elasticity coefficients of 1.152, 0.585, -0.478, and -0.230, respectively. In the eastern region, the generation of MSW was further promoted by the improvement of urbanization level, the increase of population size, and the miniaturization of family size, while the increase of population aging reduced the generation of MSW. However, in the central and western regions, the positive effect of urbanization level and the negative effect of population aging were significantly stronger than in the eastern region, whereas the positive effect of population size and family size were significantly weaker than in the eastern region. From the perspective of affluence, an inverted N-type relationship was observed between the per capita consumption expenditure of residents and the generation of MSW at the national level. The generation of MSW increased remarkably along with the improvement of per capita consumption expenditure and per capita GDP in the eastern region. From the perspective of technology, the elasticity coefficients of domestic energy consumption intensity and municipal appearance environmental sanitation expense were 0.120 and -0.0168 respectively, of which the regional difference was not significant.