飞行事故概率模型与风险评估方法

以事故统计为基础,建立了飞行事故概率模型与随机过程模型,对飞行安全可靠性指标进行定量评估。根据独立性假设,推导了飞行风险的概率分布,并给出飞行安全重要指标间的关系。假设飞行事故发生是Poisson过程,导出了飞行安全可靠性概率指标的区间估计计算方法。实例计算表明,通过统计量可以对飞行安全进行风险评估,根据飞行事故风险概率等级要求得到评定等级。

Probability Model for Flight Accidents and Risk Assessment Method

In order to assess flight safety on the system,the flight accident probability model and random process model are set up based on accident statistics,and quantitative assessment is realized by the index of safety reliability.Based on the assumption of independence,the distribution laws for flight risk are developed,and the relationships between the main indexes of the flight safety are ascertained.The air accidents are statistically modeled by assuming the accident events following Poisson process,and the index of safety reliability is estimated by interval.The example shows that the flight safety can assess the risk,and the rank can be gotten according to the grade demand for the accidents' risk probability.