基于MNL的高速公路施工区合流选择意愿研究*

为分析驾驶人高速公路施工区合流选择意愿的影响因素，基于非集计理论构建多属性施工区驾驶人合流选择意愿模型。利用SP调查法自主设计调查问卷，获得328份有效施工区驾驶人合流选择数据；利用Pearson相关系数分析施工区合流选择意愿与驾驶人因素和道路交通环境因素的相关性；以上游过渡区、警告区Ⅰ和警告区Ⅱ 3个合流区域作为选择肢，从驾驶人和道路交通环境特征属性2个方面归纳出6个因素对施工区合流选择意愿的影响，应用分类变量处理方法将其定义为6种指标，并进行赋值。结合非集计理论，以328份有效问卷为建模数据，建立施工区合流选择意愿的MNL模型，并利用似然比、优度比和模型命中率3个指标判断模型的拟合程度。结果表明:模型拟合程度较好；驾龄、施工区类型、道路条件、交通控制标志、速度条件和限速策略对驾驶人施工区合流选择意愿有显著影响。

Study on merging choice willingness in expressway work zone based on MNL model

In order to analyze the factors influencing the merging choice willingness of drivers in the work zone of expressway,a multi-attribute model on the merging choice willingness of drivers in the work zone was constructed based on the disaggregation theory.The self-designed questionnaire by using the stated preference (SP) survey method was applied to obtain 328 effective merging choice data of drivers in the work zone,and the Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between the merging choice willingness and the factors of drivers and road traffic environment in the work zone.Three merging areas including upstream transition area,warning area I and warning area II were selected as the alternative set,and the influence of 6 factors on the merging choice willingness in the work zone was concluded from two aspects of drivers characteristic attributes and road traffic environment characteristic attributes,then 6 indexes were defined by using the categorical variable processing method,and the value assignment was conducted.Combined with the disaggregation theory,taking 328 effective questionnaires as the modeling data,a multinomial Logit (MNL) model of merging choice willingness in the work zone was established,and the fitting degree of model was judged by using three indexes of likelihood ratio,goodness ratio and hit rate.The results showed that the fitting degree of model was better.The variables of driving age,type of work zone,road conditions,traffic control sign,speed conditions and speed limit strategy had significant influence on the merging choice willingness of drivers in the work zone.