尾矿库事故隐患及风险表征与防控方法*

为解决尾矿库安全隐患及风险，应用基于证据(Evidence-based)方法和事故树分析模型，辨识并表征尾矿库事故影响因素、隐患及耦合状态，根据事件发生可能性、潜在后果严重性和受体暴露程度相关独立参数，给出尾矿库事故风险表征方法，建立尾矿库事故多情景、多阶段（3段）、多层次和多等级（4级）风险防控框架。结果表明:对尾矿库5类事故（溃坝、漫顶、渗流、输送冒漏、库区扬尘）进行分析，得出基本事件或蛰伏隐患对尾矿库事故结构重要度或影响程度，给出尾矿库事故风险3维表征方法，并结合巴西布鲁马迪尼奥尾矿库进行实例应用，确定尾矿库风险等级（最高级4级），验证方法可行性与有效性。研究结果可为尾矿库减灾防灾提供理论支撑与实践指导。

Characterization and prevention and control methods for accident potential hazards and risks of tailings pond

In order to solve the potential safety hazards and risks of tailings pond,facing the life cycle of tailings pond,the influencing factors,potential hazards and coupling status of accidents in the tailings pond were identified and characterized by using the evidence-based method and the fault tree analysis model.According to the related independent parameters including the occurrence probability of event,the severity of potential consequences and the exposure degree of receptor,the risk characterization method of tailings pond accidents was given,and the risk prevention and control framework with multi-scenario,multi-stage (3 stages),multi-level and multi-grade (4 grades) was established.The results showed that through analyzing five types of accidents such as dam break,overtopping,seepage,transportation spill and leakage,and dust in the reservoir area,the structural importance or influence degree of basic events or potential hazards on the tailings pond accidents were obtained.A three-dimensional characterization method of the risks of tailings pond accidents was presented,and risk grade of this tailings pond was determined as grade 4 as the highest grade,which verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.The research results can provide theoretical support and practical guidance for the disaster reduction and prevention of tailings ponds.