基于改进ISM-FRAM铁路运输事故致因分析*

为提高功能共振(FRAM)在铁路运输系统事故致因分析方面清晰度和完整性，提出新增环境模块的改进FRAM模型，刻画环境功能模块与其它功能模块交互耦合作用；通过引入解释结构模型(ISM)，划分事故致因分析网络结构层次，分别计算分析网络层级重要度和功能模块结构重要度，并采用改进区间值犹豫模糊熵定量计算功能可变性和耦合损失度。结果表明:新增环境功能模块能有效分析与其它功能模块交互耦合作用，保证FRAM分析完整性；ISM-FRAM模型建立清晰事故层次结构，有助于理清事故致因；功能可变性和耦合损失度弥补FRAM风险评估定量分析不足，为功能屏障设置提供依据。

Causes analysis of railway transport accidents based on improved ISM-FRAM

In order to improve the clarity and completeness of functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) in the accident causes analysis of railway transportation system,an improved FRAM model with additional environmental module was put forward,and the interaction and coupling effect between environmental function module and other function modules was described.The interpretative structural model (ISM) was introduced to divide the structural hierarchy of accident causes analysis network,and the hierarchical importance of network and the structural importance of functional modules were calculated and analyzed respectively.The improved interval value hesitant fuzzy entropy was introduced to quantitatively calculate the functional variability and coupling loss.Based on the case analysis of the EMU accident on the Yong-wen line,the results showed that the additional environmental function module could effectively analyze the interaction and coupling effect with other function modules,which ensured the integrity of FRAM analysis.The ISM-FRAM model established a clear accident hierarchical structure,which helps to clarify the causes of accidents.The functional variability and coupling loss supplemented the deficiency of quantitative analysis in FRAM risk assessment,and provides basis for the functional barrier setting.