突发事件下人群应急信息传播策略推演方法研究*

为提升突发事件预警信息传播能力，拓宽预警信息传播渠道，增强预警信息传播多元化特征，提出群体内个体传播影响力评估方法及应急信息传播模式制定方法，并基于网络分析与多智能体建模，研究群体应急信息传播策略制定方法与有效性分析手段，重点阐述方法实施路径与应用方向。研究结果可用于制定基于社会网络的应急信息传播策略，并通过多智能建模对应急信息传播情景进行有效性推演。

Research on deduction method of crowd emergency information dissemination strategy in emergencies

To further improve the capacity of early-warning information dissemination in the emergencies,expand the dissemination channels of early-warning information,and strengthen the multiple feature of early-warning information dissemination,a deduction method of crowd emergency information dissemination strategy was proposed.The formulation method of crowd emergency information dissemination strategy and the analysis method of effectiveness were studied,and the implementation path and application direction of the method were illustrated with emphasis.The method combines the social network analysis and multi-agent modeling methods simultaneously,it can be used to formulate the emergency information dissemination strategies based on the social network,and to deduct the effectiveness of emergency information dissemination scenarios through the multi-agent modeling.