基于半定量的FRAM道路危险品运输事故分析方法研究*

为弥补事故分析法在道路危险品运输事故致因研究方面的缺失，解决传统事故分析方法分析结果不全面、防控措施不具体且针对性较差的问题，引入半定量功能共振事故模型（FRAM），通过定量化功能上下游耦合变异性,阐述事故发生机理同时,找到系统关键功能和关键链路，制定防控措施重点监控。结果表明:基于半定量的FRAM道路危险品运输事故分析方法能够更快、更准确地找出事故发生的关键功能和关键链路，制定针对性防控措施，有效提高道路危险品运输系统安全性。研究结果可为道路事故分析提供参考。

Research on FRAM analysis method of accidents in dangerous goods transportation by road based on semi-quantitative method

In order to make up for the lack of using the accident analysis methods to explore the causes of accidents in the dangerous goods transportation by road,and to solve the problems that the analysis results of traditional accident analysis methods were incomplete and the prevention and control measures were unspecific with poor pertinence,a semi-quantitative functional resonance accident model (FRAM) was introduced.The upstream and downstream coupling variability of the function was quantified to explain the mechanism of the accidents,find out the key functions and key links of the system,and formulate the prevention and control measures for key monitoring.The results showed that the semi-quantitative FRAM analysis method of accidents in the dangerous goods transportation by road could quickly and more accurately find the key functions and key links that led to the accident,and formulate the targeted prevention and control measures to effectively improve the safety of the road dangerous goods transportation system.The research results provide a reference for the road accidents analysis.